Extrapolation of Taulbee Survey Data

Each year, the Computing Research Association sponsors the Taulbee Survey of Ph.D. schools. While this survey covers many topics, one focus involves the plans of new Ph.D.s in computer science and computer engineering. While the survey includes various categories for positions, this page focuses on possible conclusions for schools whose highest degree is at the Masters or Bachelors level. While the Taulbee Survey publishes results on the basis of surveys completed, what follows also gives one possible extrapolation for all schools and new Ph.D.s.


Taulbee Survey -- Raw Data

1996-1997 1997-1998 1998-1999 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003
Ph.D. Departments Surveyed 162 182 203 214 215 225 225
Departments Responding 135 (83%) 144 (77%) 156 (77%) 173 (81%) 173 (80%) 182 (80%) 177 (79%)
   
Academic Positions
   Ph.D.-Granting Schools 237 274 293 273 294 351 434
       Tenure-Track 111 140 172 158 157 187 257
       Research 49 59 47 52 54 48 61
       Post Docs 55 55 45 40 56 83 89
       Instructors 22 20 29 23 27 33 27
   Other (Masters' and Bachelors') Schools 42 31 27 29 32 13 38
   
Industry/Self Employed 437 409 402 365 377 267 225
Government 27 30 19 21 13 18 15
Abroad 43 41 23 26 31 31 31
Unknown/Unemployed 108 148 88 160 186 167 134
   
Totals
    Known Employment 786 785 764 714 747 680 743
    Overall 894 933 852 881 933 847 877


Taulbee Survey -- Extrapolations to 100%

1996-1997 1997-1998 1998-1999 1999-2000 2000-2001 2001-2002 2002-2003
Academic Positions
   Ph.D.-Granting Schools 300 380 425 405 450 535 635
       Tenure-Track 140 195 240 235 240 285 375
       Research 60 80 70 75 85 70 90
       Post Docs 70 75 70 60 85 130 130
       Instructors 30 30 45 35 40 50 40
   Other (Masters' and Bachelors') Schools 60 45 35 45 50 20 55
   
Industry/Self Employed 530 570 565 540 575 405 330
Government 35 40 20 30 20 30 20
Abroad 55 55 35 40 50 50 45
Unknown 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
   
Totals
    Known 980 1080 1080 1060 1145 1040 1085
    Overall 1000 1100 1100 1080 1165 1060 1105

Notes

  1. All extrapolations are rounded to the nearest five and should be regarded as rough estimates -- at best.

  2. These extrapolations are based on extending the proportions from the raw data to include the schools which did not respond. Also, the proportions of various known categories were used to place most of those listed as "Unknown" in the original surveys.

  3. Extrapolations for 1996-1997 largely reflect presentations made at the 1998 Snowbird Conference.

  4. Extrapolations for years since 1997 reflect my own computations, based primarily on extending maintaining proportions of known categories to the larger populations.

  5. Direct comparison of raw results from year to year are difficult for at least two reasons. The number of schools sent surveys has increased somewhat over time. (For example, the 2001-2002 survey was sent to 225 schools, while the 2000-2001 survey was sent to 215 schools.) Also, the response rate and the specific schools returning surveys varies from year to year. Thus, while the survey base is steadily increasing, individual numbers may vary from year to year due to specifics on which schools responded. (For example, the raw data show an increase in the number of Ph.D.s from 1998-1999 to 1999-2000, but this increase is more than explained by an increase in the number of schools surveyed and then reporting. The number of schools surveyed increased 5.4%, from 203 to 214; and the number of schools responding jumped from 156 to 173, a 10.9% increase.)

  6. While the number of new Ph.D. has decreased somewhat since 2000-2001, the overall totals for 2001-2002 and 2002-2003 seem comparable to 1999-2000 and the two prior years. However, the distribution was significantly different.


This document is available on the World Wide Web as

    http://www.cs.grinnell.edu/~walker/dept/taulbee-97-03.html


 

created April 11, 2000
last revised March 14, 2004 by Henry M. Walker at walker@cs.grinnell.edu.
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